Matt Cardle to win X Factor predicts technology company

As the 2011 X-Factor final draws to a close, Alterian, takes a closer look at the mix of opinions and chatter surrounding the final contestants and reveals that based on positive conversations, Matt Cardle should be victorious.

Alterian's SM2 social media analytics tool, found over 200,000 online conversations have taken place since week one of the X Factor live finals ' with a steady increase as the final draws closer. With ongoing support for Rebecca Ferguson, Matt Cardle and One Direction, public loyalty for their favourites isn't disputed, however as the total amount of online noise has increased week-by-week you have to ask the question; if your favourite is voted off, do you swap your loyalty or lose interest? Alterian's analysis shows that as the show gains momentum loyalty shifts, proving we're a fickle bunch when it comes to voting.

Based on positive comments Matt Cardle will be crowned X Factor champion tomorrow having received 31% of the total positive comments. However, Cher Lloyd comes third ahead of Rebecca Ferguson but only reaches this position from the overwhelming support she initially received. With negative comments increasing about Cher it is unlikely she will fall in the top three.

Below are the top two insights from The X Factor analysis:

· Both Rebecca and Matt have received a staggering amount of positive comments. Only seeing a slight dip at week 7 when both Cher and Paije were in the bottom two and comments surrounding Wagner staying in the competition soared (Wagner received double the amount of negative comments on his last week compared to Katie Wassiel). Wagner's journey has been similar to that of Cher and although he received a great deal of support for his unconventional performances the negative comments began to outweigh the positive from week four.

· The judges also receive an equal proportion of the positive and negative online sentiments and at week five when Cheryl refused to vote leaving Katie Wassail safe, her positive support dropped to an all time low of 24% of positive mentions.

This year's X Factor has been surrounded by controversy with the public claiming its 'fixed'. No one can say for sure the outcome of Saturday's final, however if the events of this season, and the conversations that Alterian's SM2 has tracked are anything to go by, then it will be an interesting weekend of television viewing.